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September 2019 National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook


Hi my name is Bryan Henry, I’m the
meteorologist with Predictive Services at the National Interagency Fire Center in
Boise Idaho with your fire season outlook. Heading into the fall looking
back at August in Alaska the fire season continued to be quite active all the way
through the end of month across south-central Alaska before some wetting
rainfalls came adding a month into their fire season. As we move
forward into September we find much of the West transitioning out of the weak
fire season that was into the off season frontal passages have already begun
occurring across the West and we start seeing a little bit of wetting
precipitation occurring in places like the Pacific Northwest and the Northern
Rockies. The monsoon in the Southwest was very weak and that’s even starting to
show signs that weakening further. As we head into the fall so as we transition
into the fall we expect for that fire activity to gradually diminish in most
regions one area we are watching how where is California this is the season
where they start to have their Santa Ana winds and by late September we should
begin seeing some of those events occurring. Currently we expect a normal
Santa Ana falsifier season for that state of California as conditions with
those fuels are very dry and if you remember the fuel loading on those mid
slopes and lower elevations is quite thick so there’s a little bit concern
there but it’s not above average as far as the consumer level goes. Looking
towards East Coast it’s been very moist over there so the fire season on the
East Coast and the ball should be fairly quiet. As we head into September October
into December so respecting three average or even below average fire
season. One area that we will be monitoring
through that will fall and winter months will be Texas. Texas has been very dry
for the last two or three months and we’ve seen an increase in productivity
tivity there as well, however, they have had a little bit
precipitation over the past month and things are not quite as critically dry
as they have been, but still they are drier than average and those conditions
will continue through the winter months. That concludes today’s for our weather outlook.

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